Predicting Academic Risk for Intervention, July 2008 (FYIU 08-2)
This issue of the FYIU series focuses on predicting incoming students’ likelihood of being at risk academically by semester end. Students who earn either a GPA of less than 2.0 or no college credit during their first semester of college are identified as at-risk academically for this report. This issue is based on a series of analyses conducted on behalf of the IU regional campuses to support their planning for the Degrees of Excellence Initiative. You are receiving this announcement because we believe that you would be interested in knowing more about the characteristics of students new to IU campuses who are likely to be at risk academically.
Here are just a few of the findings:
Across the IU regional campuses, semester GPA is one of the strongest predictors of retention to the subsequent semester. Unfortunately for many of these students, semester GPA is not a timely predictor of retention. Combined, roughly 20% of first-time full-time students at the regional campuses do not return for their second semester of college.
Across the regional campuses, the percentage of students new to IU who are at risk academically by the end of their first semester ranges from 30% at IUE and IUS to 37% at IUSB.
At all IU regional campuses but one (i.e., IUK), about 70%-71% of non-returning students are in these at-risk GPA categories; at IUK, this percentage is somewhat smaller, at 65%.