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  • Indiana Model of the U.S
  • Indiana Model of Indiana
  • Indiana Sub-State Model
  • Long-Range Projection

Indiana Sub-State Model

Summary of Current Forecast: November 2009

 

Our sub-state model uses county level data combined into regional aggregates, with selected variables from our Indiana state model as exogenous variables.  Here we present a regional breakdown based on the state’s larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

The basic data for our sub-state forecast come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Economic Information System (REIS). REIS data are annual, back to 1969. The most recent data are for 2007 and are on a NAICS basis. However, data prior to 2001 have not been transformed to the new system, and consequently data for 1969-2000 are still on the SIC basis.  In addition to the REIS data, which cover employment and income by sector, our models include population data.  For the latter we use county-level estimates from the Census Bureau through 2008, and slightly adjusted projections from the Indiana Business Research Center thereafter.

All of the MSAs show weaker growth in employment for 2008-2012 than for the preceding five years. Indeed, only two MSAs (Indianapolis and Ekhart-Goshen) show positive growth, indicating that employment regains its pre-recession level. Employment decline is greatest in Anderson, Kokomo, Terre Haute, Gary and Muncie. Income growth also slows in most region.  The exceptions are Anderson, Kokomo, and Muncie.  Income growth exceeds the state average in Elkhart-Goshen, Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Lafayette, and Anderson. It is weakest in Gary, South Bend, Kokomo, and Terre Haute.