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  • Indiana Model of the U.S
  • Indiana Model of Indiana
  • Indiana Sub-State Model
  • Long-Range Projection

Indiana Sub-State Model

Summary of Current Forecast: May 2009

 

Our sub-state model uses county level data combined into regional aggregates, with selected variables from our Indiana state model as exogenous variables.  Here we present a regional breakdown based on the state’s larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

The basic data for our sub-state forecast come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Economic Information System (REIS). REIS data are annual, back to 1969. The most recent data, released in July, are for 2006 and are on a NAICS basis. However, data prior to 2001 have not been transformed to the new system, and consequently data for 1969-2000 are still on the SIC basis.  In addition to the REIS data, which cover employment and income by sector, our models include population data.  For the latter we use county-level estimates from the Census Bureau through 2007, and slightly adjusted projections from the Indiana Business Research Center thereafter.

The Fort Wayne, Kokomo, Muncie, and South Bend, MSA shows stronger growth for employment during 2007-2012 relative to the preceding six years.  But this is a dubious distinction, since each had negative performance during the earlier period.

There are six regions where our model projects employment declines (Anderson, Kokomo, Terre Haute, Gary, Muncie, and Columbus).  Job growth exceeds the national average (0.31%) in six regions [Indianapolis (0.75%), Evansville (0.42%), Lafayette (0.40%), Elkhart-Goshen (0.35%), and Louisville (0.32%)].

Income growth for 2007-2012 exceeds the state average in Indianapolis, Elkhart-Goshen, Lafayette, Ft. Wayne, Columbus, and Bloomington. . However, only the Indianapolis region has average income growth of 3.5 percent, and even there growth is well below the national rate (3.5% versus 3.9% nationally).  Laggards in income growth are Gary, Kokomo, and Muncie.