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From Sea to Warming Sea:
Climate Change and Hurricanes

Recent studies have concluded that hurricanes have increased in size and number due to ocean warming. True or not? SPEA associate professor Phil Stevens addresses the issue:

Expert perspective: Hurricanes and tropical storms are driven by the temperature of the ocean, and the increase in ocean temperature associated with global warming could lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and other severe storms. Several recent studies have found that tropical cyclone intensity has increased globally since 1970 (Webster et al., Science, volume 309, pages 1844-1846, September 16, 2005), and have found that the recent increase in hurricane intensity is directly correlated to increases in sea surface temperature (Hoyos et al., Science, volume 312, pages 94-97, April 6, 2006). As a result, it is becoming clear that that recent increases in sea surface temperature have resulted in an increase in the intensity of hurricanes.

These articles do not directly address the cause of the increase in sea surface temperature, and that is what the current debate is about. It is very difficult to link specific weather events such as a hurricane season to climate change. Weather patterns may vary from year to year, while climate changes occur over longer periods of time.

However, it is difficult to explain the multi-decade increase in sea surface temperature without including human-induced warming from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. With the new evidence linking hurricane intensity with sea surface temperature, it is hard not to link the recent increase in hurricane and tropical storm intensity with climate change.

The SPEA Toolkit: Phil Stevens is an associate professor at SPEA who focuses on the characterization of the chemical mechanisms in the atmosphere that influence regional air quality and global climate change. He is a recent recipient of a Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) award from the National Science Foundation, and is a member of the Indiana Air Pollution Control Board.

Click here to read more about Phil Stevens.

Click here to read about the hurricane-season reports.